January 2008
23 posts
125 bps and counting →
On January X, we predicted a 100% likelihood of a 100bps cut this year and a 60% likelihood of a 200bps cut.
As of Jan 31, we are at 125bps….
Sales of New Homes Fell by 26% in 2007 →
Sales of new homes fell last year by 26 percent, the steepest drop since records began in 1963, the Commerce Department said on Monday.
NY Times
Good Links →
- Dutch Housing Prices over the long-term
- Risk Management Equity Derivatives House of the Year (that would be Soc Gen!)
- If you are going to fail in the US, fail big, not small.
- Elevation Partners blowing LPs money
-More Soc-Gen There is more to this story. Something does not feel right.
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“The current crisis is not only the bust that follows the housing boom,” Mr. Soros declared....
Bromberg Bros. Blue Ribbon Restaurants →
Never thought of them as a conglomerate since I only eat Blue Ribbon and Blue Ribbon Sushi in Soho, but I came across their home page and it is quite a food empire they have built. great food…
SG Fraud →
From Dealbook (and everywhere else)
The French bank Société Générale said Thursday that it had uncovered “an exceptional fraud” by a trader that would cost it €4.9 billion ($7.1 billion) and that it would seek new capital of about $8 billion.
The company, the second-largest listed bank in France, said in a statement that the fraud had been committed by a trader in charge of “plain vanilla”...
Bill Clinton: 'Screw It, I'm Running For... →
I was laughing out loud
TurnHere Makes Local Videos for the Yellow Pages →
How to Do The Impossible: Create a Paperless Life,... →
I use several of these technologies!
Will Price: Martin Plaehn's Quick Hits: Do's and... →
Good tips for enterpreneurs
Turmoil Today →
Today seems like a poster child day for the issues we predicted last week.
Fed slashes 75 bps so we are 75% there to our 100%, 100 bps prediction and 37.5% of the way to the 60% / 200 bps prediction
Global equities markets in freefall as they discover re-coupling.
Look at Kedrosky for why decoupling hasn’t exactly happened…
Web 2.0 NY Summit - June 14 →
Mexican Stephen Colbert →
This is sheer genius.
Tip from Paul Kedrosky
Recent Good Links →
Banker’s pay is deeply flawed (Financial Times) aka how to disguise beta as alpha.
In reality, there are only a few sources of alpha for investment managers. One of them comes from having truly special abilities in identifying undervalued financial assets. Warren Buffett, the US billionaire investor, certainly has it, yet this special ability is, by definition, rare.
A second source of alpha...
Part II of II: 2008 Predictions →
2008 Outlook and Predictions
As I have mentioned, the accuracy of last year’s predictions will be basically impossible to beat as we head into more uncertain times, but here’s my shot for 2008.
The summary answer is 2008 will be a down year.
And of course this is not investment advice and should not be relied up – I am certainly not a broker, nor a dealer, nor an investment advisor nor...
Unimaginable Headlines In Today’s Papers →
Merrill Seen Suffering $15 Billion Investment Loss: Report
Countrywide Seeks Rescue Deal
Of course by now everyone is starting to adjust but if you can mentally transport yourself back to the go-go days of 2005-2006 and told someone that Countrywide would be teetering on bankruptcy in two years, you would be laughed into the business mental asylum.
Angelo Mozilo: March 13 2007 →
“This is now becoming a liquidity crisis, an unnecessary one,” Mozilo told CNBC television. “There’s been a rush to judgment, an overreaction, a baby out with the bathwater. There’s no question about it.”
Mozilo said the winnowing of competitors will be “great” for Countrywide, the largest U.S. mortgage lender, which might pick up market share.
From Reuters
BOA and Countrywide - Oh, I bet the Feds will let... →
From WSJ
On potential obstacle to the deal is a Federal law which prohibits a bank-holding company from controlling more than 10% of U.S. deposits after acquiring another bank.
But the law includes an obscure caveat: The 10% limit doesn’t apply to federally chartered thrifts, meaning a bank-holding company may control more than 10% of deposits in the U.S. following a thrift acquisition. Since a...
Picture of the Day: Greek Orthodox Priests and GW... →
This flash of the exotic (to Western eyes at least) caught my eye today. An often forgotten thing in Israel/Palestine is the small but historically very important Christian community.
The Greek Orthodox Patriarchate of Jerusalem has been there the longest and is regarded by the Orthodox as the mother church of all Christendom.
It runs the main Church of the Nativity in Bethlehem as well as...
Part I of II: Review of 2007 Predictions →
As highly distinguished (time to kiss up to my 2 readers!) regular followers of this blog know this has been my year of attempting to humiliate myself via public predictions. I figured this is the only way for me to counter my tendency to think I am always right through the amazing trick called selective memory.
In Part I, we review the last year’s predictions. In Part II, we will do 2008...
Todays Best Links →
Exciting Commercial Real Estate Bust on the way in London (Economist)
Yet, with the impeccably bad timing the industry is known for, construction boomed just as the market was peaking.
I think this is one of those that are almost tautological. Given how human psychology seems to work it appears to be inevitable.
Awesome graphic: Inflation adjusted price of gold for 400 years (Daily Telegraph...
Best Links of the Day →
Humans vs. Machines in Financial Services (thank you Kedrosky)
Chief Executive at Strayer honored (Strayer is indeed a very well managed firm)
Format war probably over in high definition DVD and Blu-ray wins Implications: 1/ buy a PS3 for the massively subsidized blu-ray player. 2/ Sony wins revenge for Betamax 3/ blu-ray is a better format so this is a good victory, 4/ in the long-run, any disc...
Today’s Best Links →
I am going to try a new format for now since my posting has declined dramatically. Lots more posts showing interesting links. Fewer but more meaningful written articles.
We’ll see how this goes:
Financial implications of Software as a Service From Paul Kedrosky.
Putting Privilege into Perspective (WSJ)
Option ARM map of misery (Businessweek) We’ve shown it before. Just a reminder to look at...
Euro transition →
So on Jan 1, 2008, Cyprus transitioned to the Euro, replacing the Cyprus Pound. It was very interesting for a geek like me to watch the transition which was incredibly smooth.
There has been dual euro-pound pricing for a year now and merchants will accept both currencies for the next month. Most impressive is all the behind the scenes work that has transitioned all payment systems to a new system...